Newcastle vs Aston Villa Result: 0-1 — How the Model Called It, 17 October 2026
Newcastle vs Aston Villa finished 0-1 on 17 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa.
- Result: Aston Villa.
- The model gave this outcome a 34.6% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa in Premier League, 17 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Newcastle vs Aston Villa these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Newcastle | 36.3% |
| Draw | 29.2% |
| Aston Villa | 34.6% |
The model made Newcastle the most likely outcome at 36.3%. What happened was Aston Villa, which it gave 34.6%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Newcastle vs Aston Villa analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Newcastle — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Aston Villa — Profile, squad and fixtures
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Tottenham vs Coventry Result: 3-1 — How the Model Called It, 19 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Leeds vs Manchester United Result: 1-1 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace Result: 5-0 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026