FOOTBALLPremier Leaguematch-preview01/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Newcastle vs Bournemouth on 5 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
Newcastle are 7th in the table, Bournemouth 15th.
These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Newcastle take on Bournemouth on 5 September 2026, 11:30 UTC in Premier League. The MatchSense model is analysing this fixture; its probabilities appear here once published.

Newcastle sit 7th in the Premier League table on 5 points from 3 games, with Bournemouth 15th on 2 points — 8 places apart in a 20-team competition.

How both sides arrive

Across their last 10, Newcastle show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded. Across their last 10, Bournemouth show 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets.

Previous meetings

4 previous meetings split 0-2-2 in Newcastle's favour on the head-to-head. Their previous meeting was on 18 April 2026: Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth, Bournemouth taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Where the numbers come from

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Newcastle vs Bournemouth analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Premier League table and fixtures
Newcastle — Profile, squad and fixtures
Bournemouth — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

When do Newcastle and Bournemouth play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 5 September 2026, 11:30 UTC in Premier League.

Which markets are analysed for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Newcastle played Bournemouth?

They last met on 18 April 2026, Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth. Across 4 meetings, Newcastle have won 0, Bournemouth 2, with 2 drawn.

How accurate are these probabilities?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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