Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities for 22 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica on 22 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Benfica at 72.9%.
- Benfica: 72.9%.
- Draw: 16.4%.
- Omonia Nicosia: 10.8%.
- Omonia Nicosia are 15th in the table, Benfica 7th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Omonia Nicosia host Benfica on 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the UEFA Europa League table, Omonia Nicosia are 15th and Benfica 7th, level on points between them — 8 places apart in a 36-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Benfica | 72.9% |
| Draw | 16.4% |
| Omonia Nicosia | 10.8% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Omonia Nicosia have won their last 3, keeping 4 clean sheets. Benfica bring a record of 8-0-2 from their last 10, scoring 2.4 a game.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Omonia Nicosia — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Benfica — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Omonia Nicosia or Benfica?
The MatchSense model gives Benfica the highest probability at 72.9%. That makes it the model's firm call, with the balance spread across the rest.
When do Omonia Nicosia and Benfica play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
What form are Omonia Nicosia and Benfica in?
Omonia Nicosia come in having won 3 in a row, keeping 4 clean sheets. Benfica have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10, scoring 2.4 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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