Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew on 10 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Orlando City SC at 43.0%.
- Orlando City SC: 43.0%.
- Columbus Crew: 33.3%.
- Draw: 23.8%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Orlando City SC are 7th in the table, Columbus Crew 12th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Orlando City SC welcome Columbus Crew on 10 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Orlando City SC sit 7th in the Major League Soccer table on 34 points from 27 games, with Columbus Crew 12th on 29 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 43.0% |
| Columbus Crew | 33.3% |
| Draw | 23.8% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Orlando City SC bring a record of 4-2-4 from their last 10, scoring 2.0 a game. Columbus Crew come in with 7 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
The head-to-head
Across 5 meetings it is close: 1 to Orlando City SC, 2 to Columbus Crew, 2 drawn. They last met on 12 April 2026, Columbus Crew drawing 1-1.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Orlando City SC — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Columbus Crew — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Orlando City SC or Columbus Crew?
The MatchSense model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 43.0%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Orlando City SC played Columbus Crew?
They last met on 12 April 2026, Columbus Crew 1-1 Orlando City SC. Across 5 meetings, Orlando City SC have won 1, Columbus Crew 2, with 2 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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