Orlando City SC vs DC United Prediction — Model Probabilities for 17 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Orlando City SC vs DC United on 17 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Orlando City SC at 53.5%.
- Orlando City SC: 53.5%.
- DC United: 23.4%.
- Draw: 23.1%.
- Orlando City SC are 7th in the table, DC United 12th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Orlando City SC host DC United on 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Orlando City SC come into this 7th in the Major League Soccer table with 38 points; DC United are 12th on 33 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 53.5% |
| DC United | 23.4% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Orlando City SC bring a record of 5-2-3 from their last 10, scoring 2.3 a game. Across their last 10, DC United show 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
Across 4 meetings it is close: 2 to Orlando City SC, 1 to DC United, 1 drawn. They last met on 25 April 2026: DC United 3-2 Orlando City SC, DC United taking it.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Orlando City SC vs DC United analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Orlando City SC — Profile, squad and fixtures
- DC United — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Orlando City SC or DC United?
The MatchSense model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 53.5%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Orlando City SC and DC United play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Orlando City SC played DC United?
They last met on 25 April 2026, DC United 3-2 Orlando City SC. Across 4 meetings, Orlando City SC have won 2, DC United 1, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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