Osasuna vs Espanyol Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Osasuna vs Espanyol on 12 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Osasuna at 39.8%.
- Osasuna: 39.8%.
- Draw: 30.6%.
- Espanyol: 29.6%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Osasuna are 8th in the table, Espanyol 12th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Osasuna take on Espanyol on 12 September 2026, 14:15 UTC in La Liga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Osasuna come into this 8th in the La Liga table with 7 points; Espanyol are 12th on 4 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Osasuna | 39.8% |
| Draw | 30.6% |
| Espanyol | 29.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Osasuna come in with 6 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Espanyol show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets.
The head-to-head
4 previous meetings split 1-1-2 in Osasuna's favour on the head-to-head. They last met on 17 May 2026: Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol, Espanyol taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Osasuna vs Espanyol analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- La Liga table and fixtures
- Osasuna — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Espanyol — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Osasuna or Espanyol?
The MatchSense model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 39.8%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Osasuna and Espanyol play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 14:15 UTC in La Liga.
Which markets are analysed for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Osasuna played Espanyol?
They last met on 17 May 2026, Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol. Across 4 meetings, Osasuna have won 1, Espanyol 2, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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