Osasuna vs Racing Santander Prediction — Model Probabilities for 18 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Osasuna vs Racing Santander on 18 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Osasuna at 44.4%.
- Osasuna: 44.4%.
- Draw: 31.4%.
- Racing Santander: 24.2%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Osasuna are 16th in the table, Racing Santander 15th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Osasuna take on Racing Santander on 18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC in La Liga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Osasuna come into this 16th in the La Liga table with 8 points; Racing Santander are 15th on 8 points, a single place apart.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Osasuna | 44.4% |
| Draw | 31.4% |
| Racing Santander | 24.2% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
Osasuna have lost 6 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Racing Santander bring a record of 4-2-4 from their last 10, scoring 2.1 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Osasuna vs Racing Santander analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- La Liga table and fixtures
- Osasuna — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Racing Santander — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Osasuna or Racing Santander?
The MatchSense model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 44.4%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Osasuna and Racing Santander play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC in La Liga.
Which markets are analysed for Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Osasuna and Racing Santander in?
Osasuna have lost 6 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Racing Santander show 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, scoring 2.1 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Alaves vs Malaga Result: 1-1 — How the Model Called It, 23 October 2026
- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Result: 1-1 — How the Model Called It, 19 October 2026
- Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026