Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Osasuna at 43.2%.
- Osasuna: 43.2%.
- Draw: 28.6%.
- Rayo Vallecano: 28.2%.
- Osasuna are 11th in the table, Rayo Vallecano 16th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Osasuna take on Rayo Vallecano on 19 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in La Liga. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Osasuna sit 11th in the La Liga table on 7 points from 5 games, with Rayo Vallecano 16th on 4 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Osasuna | 43.2% |
| Draw | 28.6% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 28.2% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Osasuna have lost 7 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Rayo Vallecano have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
Across 5 meetings it is close: 2 to Osasuna, 2 to Rayo Vallecano, 1 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 24 January 2026: Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna, Osasuna taking it.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- La Liga table and fixtures
- Osasuna — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Osasuna or Rayo Vallecano?
The MatchSense model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 43.2%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in La Liga.
What happened the last time Osasuna played Rayo Vallecano?
They last met on 24 January 2026, Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna. Across 5 meetings, Osasuna have won 2, Rayo Vallecano 2, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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