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FOOTBALLLiga 1match-preview10/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Persebaya Surabaya vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSIM Yogyakarta on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Persebaya Surabaya at 65.2%.
  • Persebaya Surabaya: 65.2%.
  • Draw: 19.2%.
  • PSIM Yogyakarta: 15.7%.
  • 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
  • Persebaya Surabaya are 14th in the table, PSIM Yogyakarta 10th.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Persebaya Surabaya welcome PSIM Yogyakarta on 13 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

Persebaya Surabaya sit 14th in the Liga 1 table on 1 point from 1 game, with PSIM Yogyakarta 10th on 1 point.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
Persebaya Surabaya65.2%
Draw19.2%
PSIM Yogyakarta15.7%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

Recent form

Persebaya Surabaya are unbeaten in 7, scoring 2.5 a game. PSIM Yogyakarta come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded.

The head-to-head

The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 25 January 2026: PSIM Yogyakarta 0-3 Persebaya Surabaya, Persebaya Surabaya taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

How are these numbers produced?

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Persebaya Surabaya or PSIM Yogyakarta?

The MatchSense model gives Persebaya Surabaya the highest probability at 65.2%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.

When do Persebaya Surabaya and PSIM Yogyakarta play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1.

Which markets are analysed for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSIM Yogyakarta?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Persebaya Surabaya played PSIM Yogyakarta?

They last met on 25 January 2026, PSIM Yogyakarta 0-3 Persebaya Surabaya. Across both meetings, Persebaya Surabaya have won 1, PSIM Yogyakarta 1, with 0 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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