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FOOTBALLLiga 1match-preview15/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman Prediction — Model Probabilities for 18 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman on 18 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Persebaya Surabaya at 53.8%.
  • Persebaya Surabaya: 53.8%.
  • Draw: 25.5%.
  • PSS Sleman: 20.7%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Persebaya Surabaya are 6th in the table, PSS Sleman 15th.
  • These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Persebaya Surabaya take on PSS Sleman on 18 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

Persebaya Surabaya come into this 6th in the Liga 1 table with 8 points; PSS Sleman are 15th on 3 points — 9 places apart in a 22-team competition.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
Persebaya Surabaya53.8%
Draw25.5%
PSS Sleman20.7%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

What each side brings into this

Persebaya Surabaya stretch an unbeaten run of 10 into this one, scoring 2.6 a game. Across their last 10, PSS Sleman show 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Persebaya Surabaya or PSS Sleman?

The MatchSense model gives Persebaya Surabaya the highest probability at 53.8%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do Persebaya Surabaya and PSS Sleman play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 18 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1.

Which markets are analysed for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are Persebaya Surabaya and PSS Sleman in?

Persebaya Surabaya have gone 10 matches without defeat, scoring 2.6 a game. PSS Sleman bring a record of 5-0-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How accurate are these probabilities?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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