PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya Prediction — Model Probabilities for 22 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya on 22 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Persebaya Surabaya at 42.6%.
- Persebaya Surabaya: 42.6%.
- PSM Makassar: 29.1%.
- Draw: 28.3%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- PSM Makassar are 14th in the table, Persebaya Surabaya 7th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
PSM Makassar take on Persebaya Surabaya on 22 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Liga 1 table, PSM Makassar are 14th and Persebaya Surabaya 7th, 4 points between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Persebaya Surabaya | 42.6% |
| PSM Makassar | 29.1% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
PSM Makassar have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 1.1 scored and 2.2 conceded. Persebaya Surabaya stretch an unbeaten run of 10 into this one, scoring 2.6 a game.
Previous meetings
Across 3 meetings it is close: 0 to PSM Makassar, 2 to Persebaya Surabaya, 1 drawn. They last met on 25 February 2026: Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSM Makassar, Persebaya Surabaya taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Liga 1 table and fixtures
- PSM Makassar — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Persebaya Surabaya — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, PSM Makassar or Persebaya Surabaya?
The MatchSense model gives Persebaya Surabaya the highest probability at 42.6%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do PSM Makassar and Persebaya Surabaya play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 22 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1.
Which markets are analysed for PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time PSM Makassar played Persebaya Surabaya?
They last met on 25 February 2026, Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSM Makassar. Across 3 meetings, PSM Makassar have won 0, Persebaya Surabaya 2, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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