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FOOTBALLLiga 1match-preview14/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Persepam Madura Utd vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction — Model Probabilities for 18 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Persepam Madura Utd vs PSIM Yogyakarta on 18 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Persepam Madura Utd at 46.5%.
  • Persepam Madura Utd: 46.5%.
  • PSIM Yogyakarta: 28.1%.
  • Draw: 25.6%.
  • 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
  • Persepam Madura Utd are 3rd in the table, PSIM Yogyakarta 14th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

Persepam Madura Utd take on PSIM Yogyakarta on 18 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

Persepam Madura Utd sit 3rd in the Liga 1 table on 6 points from 2 games, with PSIM Yogyakarta 14th on 1 point — 11 places apart in a 22-team competition.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
Persepam Madura Utd46.5%
PSIM Yogyakarta28.1%
Draw25.6%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

How both sides arrive

Persepam Madura Utd arrive on a run of 3 straight wins, keeping 4 clean sheets. PSIM Yogyakarta have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded.

When these two have met

The two have met just twice in our records. Their previous meeting was on 17 May 2026: PSIM Yogyakarta 2-1 Persepam Madura Utd, PSIM Yogyakarta taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

How are these numbers produced?

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Persepam Madura Utd or PSIM Yogyakarta?

The MatchSense model gives Persepam Madura Utd the highest probability at 46.5%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.

When do Persepam Madura Utd and PSIM Yogyakarta play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 18 September 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1.

Which markets are analysed for Persepam Madura Utd vs PSIM Yogyakarta?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Persepam Madura Utd played PSIM Yogyakarta?

They last met on 17 May 2026, PSIM Yogyakarta 2-1 Persepam Madura Utd. Across both meetings, Persepam Madura Utd have won 0, PSIM Yogyakarta 2, with 0 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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