Persija vs Arema FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 21 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Persija vs Arema FC on 21 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Persija at 57.5%.
- Persija: 57.5%.
- Draw: 24.1%.
- Arema FC: 18.3%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Persija are 1st in the table, Arema FC 10th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Persija take on Arema FC on 21 October 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Persija come into this 1st in the Liga 1 table with 12 points; Arema FC are 10th on 6 points — 9 places apart in a 22-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Persija | 57.5% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Arema FC | 18.3% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Across their last 10, Persija show 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 2.3 a game. Arema FC have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, scoring 2.4 a game.
Previous meetings
The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 8 February 2026: Persija 0-2 Arema FC, Arema FC taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Persija vs Arema FC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Liga 1 table and fixtures
- Persija — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Arema FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Persija or Arema FC?
The MatchSense model gives Persija the highest probability at 57.5%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Persija and Arema FC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 21 October 2026, 12:00 UTC in Liga 1.
Which markets are analysed for Persija vs Arema FC?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Persija played Arema FC?
They last met on 8 February 2026, Persija 0-2 Arema FC. Across both meetings, Persija have won 1, Arema FC 1, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Persib Bandung vs Persik Kediri Result: 1-0 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026
- Persik Kediri vs PSS Sleman Prediction — Model Probabilities for 22 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman Result: 2-2 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026
- Persepam Madura Utd vs Persib Bandung Prediction — Model Probabilities for 22 October 2026