Persita vs Garudayaksa Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Persita vs Garudayaksa on 10 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Persita at 40.1%.
- Persita: 40.1%.
- Garudayaksa: 30.0%.
- Draw: 29.9%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Persita are 9th in the table, Garudayaksa 13th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Persita welcome Garudayaksa on 10 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Liga 1 table, Persita are 9th and Garudayaksa 13th, 3 points between them.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Persita | 40.1% |
| Garudayaksa | 30.0% |
| Draw | 29.9% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Across their last 10, Persita show 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.6 conceded. Garudayaksa are still without a win in 3, averaging 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Persita vs Garudayaksa analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Liga 1 table and fixtures
- Persita — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Garudayaksa — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Persita or Garudayaksa?
The MatchSense model gives Persita the highest probability at 40.1%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Persita and Garudayaksa play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1.
Which markets are analysed for Persita vs Garudayaksa?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Persita and Garudayaksa in?
Across their last 10, Persita show 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.6 conceded. Garudayaksa are still without a win in 3, averaging 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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