Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026

Philadelphia Union take on CF Montreal on 5 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. The MatchSense model is analysing this fixture; its probabilities appear here once published.

Philadelphia Union come into this 9th in the Major League Soccer table with 27 points; CF Montreal are 15th on 21 points.

What each side brings into this

Philadelphia Union have gone 7 matches without defeat, scoring 2.4 a game. CF Montreal bring a record of 1-5-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.1 conceded.

The head-to-head

Philadelphia Union lead the series 3-0-0. They last met on 11 April 2026: CF Montreal 1-2 Philadelphia Union, Philadelphia Union taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

• Full Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
• Major League Soccer table and fixtures
• Philadelphia Union — Profile, squad and fixtures
• CF Montreal — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.