Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City on 10 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Portland Timbers at 39.1%.
- Portland Timbers: 39.1%.
- St. Louis City: 34.1%.
- Draw: 26.8%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Portland Timbers are 8th in the table, St. Louis City 5th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Portland Timbers welcome St. Louis City on 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Portland Timbers come into this 8th in the Major League Soccer table with 31 points; St. Louis City are 5th on 37 points.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 39.1% |
| St. Louis City | 34.1% |
| Draw | 26.8% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Portland Timbers bring a record of 5-2-3 from their last 10, scoring 2.3 a game. St. Louis City stretch an unbeaten run of 10 into this one, scoring 2.3 a game.
When these two have met
The two have met just twice in our records. Their previous meeting was on 13 July 2025: St. Louis City 2-1 Portland Timbers, St. Louis City taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Portland Timbers — Profile, squad and fixtures
- St. Louis City — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Portland Timbers or St. Louis City?
The MatchSense model gives Portland Timbers the highest probability at 39.1%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Portland Timbers and St. Louis City play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Portland Timbers played St. Louis City?
They last met on 13 July 2025, St. Louis City 2-1 Portland Timbers. Across both meetings, Portland Timbers have won 1, St. Louis City 1, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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