PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persita Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persita on 5 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is PSIM Yogyakarta at 46.5%.
- PSIM Yogyakarta: 46.5%.
- Draw: 29.6%.
- Persita: 23.9%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- PSIM Yogyakarta come in on 2-2-6 from their last 10.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
PSIM Yogyakarta take on Persita on 5 September 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| PSIM Yogyakarta | 46.5% |
| Draw | 29.6% |
| Persita | 23.9% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
PSIM Yogyakarta have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded. Persita come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 0.7 scored and 1.4 conceded.
When these two have met
The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 30 April 2026: PSIM Yogyakarta 0-1 Persita, Persita taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persita analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Liga 1 table and fixtures
- PSIM Yogyakarta — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Persita — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, PSIM Yogyakarta or Persita?
The MatchSense model gives PSIM Yogyakarta the highest probability at 46.5%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do PSIM Yogyakarta and Persita play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 5 September 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1.
Which markets are analysed for PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persita?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time PSIM Yogyakarta played Persita?
They last met on 30 April 2026, PSIM Yogyakarta 0-1 Persita. Across both meetings, PSIM Yogyakarta have won 0, Persita 2, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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