FOOTBALLChampionshipmatch-recap15/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
QPR vs Derby Result: 4-1 — How the Model Called It, 14 October 2026
QPR vs Derby finished 4-1 on 14 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: QPR 4-1 Derby.
- Result: QPR.
- The model gave this outcome a 51.4% chance before kick-off.
Final score
QPR 4-1 Derby in Championship, 14 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave QPR vs Derby these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| QPR | 51.4% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Derby | 22.7% |
The model's most likely outcome — QPR at 51.4% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full QPR vs Derby analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- QPR — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Derby — Profile, squad and fixtures
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