Racing Santander vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Racing Santander vs Valencia on 11 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Racing Santander at 46.0%.
- Racing Santander: 46.0%.
- Valencia: 29.3%.
- Draw: 24.7%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Racing Santander are 16th in the table, Valencia 19th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Racing Santander take on Valencia on 11 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in La Liga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the La Liga table, Racing Santander are 16th and Valencia 19th, 3 points between them.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 46.0% |
| Valencia | 29.3% |
| Draw | 24.7% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Racing Santander bring a record of 4-2-4 from their last 10, scoring 2.0 a game. Valencia bring a record of 3-2-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Racing Santander vs Valencia analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- La Liga table and fixtures
- Racing Santander — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Valencia — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Racing Santander or Valencia?
The MatchSense model gives Racing Santander the highest probability at 46.0%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Racing Santander and Valencia play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 11 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in La Liga.
Which markets are analysed for Racing Santander vs Valencia?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Racing Santander and Valencia in?
Racing Santander bring a record of 4-2-4 from their last 10, scoring 2.0 a game. Valencia bring a record of 3-2-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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