Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Real Salt Lake at 43.5%.
- Real Salt Lake: 43.5%.
- New York City FC: 29.2%.
- Draw: 27.2%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Real Salt Lake come in on 0-4-6 from their last 10.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Real Salt Lake take on New York City FC on 13 September 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake | 43.5% |
| New York City FC | 29.2% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Real Salt Lake come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.9 conceded. New York City FC have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Real Salt Lake — Profile, squad and fixtures
- New York City FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Real Salt Lake or New York City FC?
The MatchSense model gives Real Salt Lake the highest probability at 43.5%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Real Salt Lake and New York City FC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Real Salt Lake and New York City FC in?
Real Salt Lake come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.9 conceded. New York City FC bring a record of 2-4-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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