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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview11/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

San Diego vs Houston Dynamo Prediction — Model Probabilities for 15 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for San Diego vs Houston Dynamo on 15 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is San Diego at 45.0%.
  • San Diego: 45.0%.
  • Draw: 27.6%.
  • Houston Dynamo: 27.4%.
  • 4 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • San Diego are 12th in the table, Houston Dynamo 5th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

San Diego host Houston Dynamo on 15 October 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

In the Major League Soccer table, San Diego are 12th and Houston Dynamo 5th, 13 points between them.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
San Diego45.0%
Draw27.6%
Houston Dynamo27.4%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

How both sides arrive

Across their last 10, San Diego show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets. Houston Dynamo have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets.

Previous meetings

3 previous meetings split 1-0-2 in San Diego's favour on the head-to-head. Their previous meeting was on 23 April 2026: Houston Dynamo 1-0 San Diego, Houston Dynamo taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 4 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, San Diego or Houston Dynamo?

The MatchSense model gives San Diego the highest probability at 45.0%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.

When do San Diego and Houston Dynamo play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 15 October 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for San Diego vs Houston Dynamo?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 4 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time San Diego played Houston Dynamo?

They last met on 23 April 2026, Houston Dynamo 1-0 San Diego. Across 3 meetings, San Diego have won 1, Houston Dynamo 2, with 0 drawn.

How accurate are these probabilities?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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