San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes on 10 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is San Diego at 51.2%.
- San Diego: 51.2%.
- San Jose Earthquakes: 25.1%.
- Draw: 23.7%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- San Diego are 9th in the table, San Jose Earthquakes 6th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
San Diego host San Jose Earthquakes on 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Major League Soccer table, San Diego are 9th and San Jose Earthquakes 6th, 5 points between them.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| San Diego | 51.2% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 25.1% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
San Diego bring a record of 4-2-4 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. San Jose Earthquakes come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 1.1 scored and 2.3 conceded.
The head-to-head
Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to San Diego, 2 to San Jose Earthquakes, 0 drawn. They last met on 5 April 2026: San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 San Diego, San Jose Earthquakes taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- San Diego — Profile, squad and fixtures
- San Jose Earthquakes — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, San Diego or San Jose Earthquakes?
The MatchSense model gives San Diego the highest probability at 51.2%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time San Diego played San Jose Earthquakes?
They last met on 5 April 2026, San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 San Diego. Across 3 meetings, San Diego have won 1, San Jose Earthquakes 2, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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