San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is San Jose Earthquakes at 39.2%.
- San Jose Earthquakes: 39.2%.
- Houston Dynamo: 32.0%.
- Draw: 28.8%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- San Jose Earthquakes are 5th in the table, Houston Dynamo 2nd.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
San Jose Earthquakes host Houston Dynamo on 13 September 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
San Jose Earthquakes sit 5th in the Major League Soccer table on 38 points from 24 games, with Houston Dynamo 2nd on 43 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 39.2% |
| Houston Dynamo | 32.0% |
| Draw | 28.8% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded. Houston Dynamo bring a record of 6-3-1 from their last 10, conceding just 0.4 a game.
When these two have met
Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to San Jose Earthquakes, 0 to Houston Dynamo, 2 drawn. Their previous meeting was on 30 August 2026, Houston Dynamo drawing 0-0.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- San Jose Earthquakes — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Houston Dynamo — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, San Jose Earthquakes or Houston Dynamo?
The MatchSense model gives San Jose Earthquakes the highest probability at 39.2%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time San Jose Earthquakes played Houston Dynamo?
They last met on 30 August 2026, Houston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes. Across 3 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes have won 1, Houston Dynamo 0, with 2 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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