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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview15/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Los Angeles FC at 39.3%.
  • Los Angeles FC: 39.3%.
  • San Jose Earthquakes: 32.6%.
  • Draw: 28.0%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • San Jose Earthquakes are 4th in the table, Los Angeles FC 6th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

San Jose Earthquakes host Los Angeles FC on 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

In the Major League Soccer table, San Jose Earthquakes are 4th and Los Angeles FC 6th, a point between them.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
Los Angeles FC39.3%
San Jose Earthquakes32.6%
Draw28.0%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

How both sides arrive

San Jose Earthquakes have gone 4 matches without defeat, keeping 2 clean sheets. Los Angeles FC have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.

The head-to-head

Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to San Jose Earthquakes, 2 to Los Angeles FC, 0 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 19 April 2026: Los Angeles FC 1-4 San Jose Earthquakes, San Jose Earthquakes taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, San Jose Earthquakes or Los Angeles FC?

The MatchSense model gives Los Angeles FC the highest probability at 39.3%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.

When do San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles FC play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time San Jose Earthquakes played Los Angeles FC?

They last met on 19 April 2026, Los Angeles FC 1-4 San Jose Earthquakes. Across 3 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes have won 1, Los Angeles FC 2, with 0 drawn.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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