San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 18 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC on 18 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Nashville SC at 48.8%.
- Nashville SC: 48.8%.
- San Jose Earthquakes: 25.9%.
- Draw: 25.3%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- San Jose Earthquakes come in on 3-5-2 from their last 10.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
San Jose Earthquakes host Nashville SC on 18 October 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 48.8% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 25.9% |
| Draw | 25.3% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes stretch an unbeaten run of 8 into this one, keeping 2 clean sheets. Nashville SC come in having won 4 in a row, scoring 2.4 a game.
When these two have met
The two have met just once in our records. Their previous meeting was on 28 April 2024, Nashville SC drawing 1-1.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- San Jose Earthquakes — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Nashville SC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, San Jose Earthquakes or Nashville SC?
The MatchSense model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 48.8%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 18 October 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time San Jose Earthquakes played Nashville SC?
They last met on 28 April 2024, Nashville SC 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes. In their one previous meeting, San Jose Earthquakes have won 0, Nashville SC 0, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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