Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal Prediction — Model Probabilities for 18 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal on 18 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Seattle Sounders at 67.0%.
- Seattle Sounders: 67.0%.
- Draw: 18.8%.
- CF Montreal: 14.2%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Seattle Sounders come in on 4-5-1 from their last 10.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Seattle Sounders take on CF Montreal on 18 October 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 67.0% |
| Draw | 18.8% |
| CF Montreal | 14.2% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
What each side brings into this
Seattle Sounders bring a record of 4-5-1 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. CF Montreal have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Seattle Sounders — Profile, squad and fixtures
- CF Montreal — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Seattle Sounders or CF Montreal?
The MatchSense model gives Seattle Sounders the highest probability at 67.0%. That makes it the model's firm call, with the balance spread across the rest.
When do Seattle Sounders and CF Montreal play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 18 October 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Seattle Sounders and CF Montreal in?
Seattle Sounders have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. CF Montreal have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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