Sheffield Utd vs Derby Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Sheffield Utd vs Derby on 24 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Sheffield Utd at 45.9%.
- Sheffield Utd: 45.9%.
- Derby: 28.0%.
- Draw: 26.1%.
- Sheffield Utd are 11th in the table, Derby 23rd.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Sheffield Utd take on Derby on 24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC in Championship. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Sheffield Utd sit 11th in the Championship table on 15 points from 11 games, with Derby 23rd on 6 points — 12 places apart in a 24-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 45.9% |
| Derby | 28.0% |
| Draw | 26.1% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Sheffield Utd have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Derby have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
When these two have met
The two have met just once in our records. They last met on 1 November 2025: Sheffield Utd 1-3 Derby, Derby taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Sheffield Utd vs Derby analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Sheffield Utd — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Derby — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Sheffield Utd or Derby?
The MatchSense model gives Sheffield Utd the highest probability at 45.9%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Sheffield Utd and Derby play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC in Championship.
What happened the last time Sheffield Utd played Derby?
They last met on 1 November 2025, Sheffield Utd 1-3 Derby. In their one previous meeting, Sheffield Utd have won 0, Derby 1, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
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