Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union Prediction — Model Probabilities for 20 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union on 20 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Philadelphia Union at 55.2%.
- Philadelphia Union: 55.2%.
- Draw: 23.3%.
- Sporting Kansas City: 21.5%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Sporting Kansas City come in on 2-1-7 from their last 10.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Sporting Kansas City host Philadelphia Union on 20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 55.2% |
| Draw | 23.3% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 21.5% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
Sporting Kansas City have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded. Philadelphia Union have won their last 4, scoring 2.8 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Sporting Kansas City — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Philadelphia Union — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Sporting Kansas City or Philadelphia Union?
The MatchSense model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 55.2%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union in?
Sporting Kansas City have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded. Philadelphia Union arrive on a run of 4 straight wins, scoring 2.8 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Orlando City SC vs New York City FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026