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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview09/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is St. Louis City at 41.2%.
  • St. Louis City: 41.2%.
  • Minnesota United FC: 31.6%.
  • Draw: 27.2%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • St. Louis City are 6th in the table, Minnesota United FC 11th.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

St. Louis City take on Minnesota United FC on 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

In the Major League Soccer table, St. Louis City are 6th and Minnesota United FC 11th, 9 points between them.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
St. Louis City41.2%
Minnesota United FC31.6%
Draw27.2%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

How both sides arrive

St. Louis City have gone 10 matches without defeat, scoring 2.2 a game. Minnesota United FC bring a record of 1-5-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.

When these two have met

The two have met just twice in our records. Their previous meeting was on 27 July 2025: St. Louis City 1-2 Minnesota United FC, Minnesota United FC taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, St. Louis City or Minnesota United FC?

The MatchSense model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 41.2%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.

When do St. Louis City and Minnesota United FC play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time St. Louis City played Minnesota United FC?

They last met on 27 July 2025, St. Louis City 1-2 Minnesota United FC. Across both meetings, St. Louis City have won 0, Minnesota United FC 2, with 0 drawn.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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