Swansea vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Swansea vs Burnley on 12 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Swansea at 42.8%.
- Swansea: 42.8%.
- Burnley: 30.6%.
- Draw: 26.6%.
- Swansea are 1st in the table, Burnley 24th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Swansea take on Burnley on 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Swansea sit 1st in the Championship table on 11 points from 5 games, with Burnley 24th on 2 points — 23 places apart in a 24-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Swansea | 42.8% |
| Burnley | 30.6% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Swansea stretch an unbeaten run of 7 into this one, conceding just 0.7 a game. Burnley have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Previous meetings
The two have met just twice in our records. The most recent meeting came on 15 March 2025: Swansea 0-2 Burnley, Burnley taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Swansea vs Burnley analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Swansea — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Burnley — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Swansea or Burnley?
The MatchSense model gives Swansea the highest probability at 42.8%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Swansea and Burnley play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship.
What happened the last time Swansea played Burnley?
They last met on 15 March 2025, Swansea 0-2 Burnley. Across both meetings, Swansea have won 0, Burnley 2, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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