Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 9 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC on 9 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is Nashville SC at 44.2%.
Nashville SC: 44.2%.
Toronto FC: 29.7%.
Draw: 26.2%.
1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
Toronto FC are 11th in the table, Nashville SC 1st.
These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Toronto FC take on Nashville SC on 9 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

Toronto FC sit 11th in the Major League Soccer table on 26 points from 23 games, with Nashville SC 1st on 53 points — 10 places apart in a 15-team competition.

The model's read

Outcome	Model probability
Nashville SC	44.2%
Toronto FC	29.7%
Draw	26.2%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

Recent form

Toronto FC stretch an unbeaten run of 6 into this one, keeping 2 clean sheets. Nashville SC have gone 6 matches without defeat, conceding just 0.7 a game.

Previous meetings

The two have met just twice in our records. The most recent meeting came on 20 July 2025: Nashville SC 1-0 Toronto FC, Nashville SC taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Toronto FC vs Nashville SC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Major League Soccer table and fixtures
Toronto FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
Nashville SC — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Toronto FC or Nashville SC?

The MatchSense model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 44.2%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.

When do Toronto FC and Nashville SC play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 9 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Toronto FC played Nashville SC?

They last met on 20 July 2025, Nashville SC 1-0 Toronto FC. Across both meetings, Toronto FC have won 0, Nashville SC 2, with 0 drawn.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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