FOOTBALLLigue 1match-recap04/09/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Toulouse vs Lille Result: 0-1 — How the Model Called It, 3 September 2026
Toulouse vs Lille finished 0-1 on 3 September 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Toulouse 0-1 Lille.
- Result: Lille.
- The model gave this outcome a 44.5% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Toulouse 0-1 Lille in Ligue 1, 3 September 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Toulouse vs Lille these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Toulouse | 27.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% |
| Lille | 44.5% |
The model's most likely outcome — Lille at 44.5% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Toulouse vs Lille analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Ligue 1 table and fixtures
- Toulouse — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Lille — Profile, squad and fixtures
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