1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026

1899 Hoffenheim welcome Borussia Dortmund on 5 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. The MatchSense model is analysing this fixture; its probabilities appear here once published.

1899 Hoffenheim come into this 16th in the Bundesliga table with 0 points; Borussia Dortmund are 3rd on 6 points — 13 places apart in an 18-team competition.

What each side brings into this

1899 Hoffenheim bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded. Borussia Dortmund come in having won 3 in a row, conceding just 0.8 a game.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 5 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Where the numbers come from

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

• Full 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
• Bundesliga table and fixtures
• 1899 Hoffenheim — Profile, squad and fixtures
• Borussia Dortmund — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.