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FOOTBALLBundesligamatch-preview08/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt on 12 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is FSV Mainz 05 at 48.6%.
  • FSV Mainz 05: 48.6%.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt: 26.6%.
  • Draw: 24.8%.
  • 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • FSV Mainz 05 are 5th in the table, Eintracht Frankfurt 14th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

FSV Mainz 05 host Eintracht Frankfurt on 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

FSV Mainz 05 come into this 5th in the Bundesliga table with 4 points; Eintracht Frankfurt are 14th on 1 point — 9 places apart in an 18-team competition.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
FSV Mainz 0548.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt26.6%
Draw24.8%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

What each side brings into this

Across their last 10, FSV Mainz 05 show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a record of 1-4-5 from their last 10, averaging 1.6 scored and 2.3 conceded.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, FSV Mainz 05 or Eintracht Frankfurt?

The MatchSense model gives FSV Mainz 05 the highest probability at 48.6%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.

Which markets are analysed for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in?

FSV Mainz 05 have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.6 scored and 2.3 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How accurate are these probabilities?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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