FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen on 12 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Bayer Leverkusen at 52.9%.
- Bayer Leverkusen: 52.9%.
- Draw: 24.1%.
- FC Augsburg: 23.0%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- FC Augsburg are 1st in the table, Bayer Leverkusen 8th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
FC Augsburg welcome Bayer Leverkusen on 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Bundesliga table, FC Augsburg are 1st and Bayer Leverkusen 8th, 3 points between them.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 52.9% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| FC Augsburg | 23.0% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
FC Augsburg have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, scoring 2.1 a game. Across their last 10, Bayer Leverkusen show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 2.5 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- FC Augsburg — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Bayer Leverkusen — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, FC Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen?
The MatchSense model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 52.9%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
Which markets are analysed for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Augsburg have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, scoring 2.1 a game. Across their last 10, Bayer Leverkusen show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 2.5 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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