Arsenal vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Arsenal vs Lille on 13 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Arsenal at 78.4%.
- Arsenal: 78.4%.
- Draw: 15.0%.
- Lille: 6.6%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Arsenal are 15th in the table, Lille 22nd.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Arsenal welcome Lille on 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Champions League. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Arsenal sit 15th in the UEFA Champions League table on 3 points from 1 game, with Lille 22nd on 0 points.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 78.4% |
| Draw | 15.0% |
| Lille | 6.6% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Arsenal bring a record of 8-1-1 from their last 10, conceding just 0.7 a game. Across their last 10, Lille show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 5 clean sheets.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Arsenal vs Lille analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Champions League table and fixtures
- Arsenal — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Lille — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Arsenal or Lille?
The MatchSense model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 78.4%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Arsenal and Lille play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Champions League.
Which markets are analysed for Arsenal vs Lille?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Arsenal and Lille in?
Across their last 10, Arsenal show 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats, conceding just 0.7 a game. Across their last 10, Lille show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 5 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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