AS Roma vs Genoa Prediction — Model Probabilities for 17 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for AS Roma vs Genoa on 17 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is AS Roma at 63.4%.
- AS Roma: 63.4%.
- Draw: 21.8%.
- Genoa: 14.8%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- AS Roma are 3rd in the table, Genoa 17th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
AS Roma host Genoa on 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in Serie A. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Serie A table, AS Roma are 3rd and Genoa 17th, 10 points between them — 14 places apart in a 20-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | 63.4% |
| Draw | 21.8% |
| Genoa | 14.8% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
AS Roma bring a record of 6-3-1 from their last 10, scoring 2.2 a game. Genoa come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Previous meetings
The two have met just once in our records. They last met on 29 December 2025: AS Roma 3-1 Genoa, AS Roma taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full AS Roma vs Genoa analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- AS Roma — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Genoa — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, AS Roma or Genoa?
The MatchSense model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 63.4%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do AS Roma and Genoa play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in Serie A.
Which markets are analysed for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time AS Roma played Genoa?
They last met on 29 December 2025, AS Roma 3-1 Genoa. In their one previous meeting, AS Roma have won 1, Genoa 0, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Torino vs Monza Result: 3-2 — How the Model Called It, 23 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Parma vs Torino Result: 0-3 — How the Model Called It, 19 October 2026
- Monza vs Cagliari Result: 4-0 — How the Model Called It, 19 October 2026