FOOTBALLUEFA Champions Leaguematch-recap15/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
AS Roma vs Real Madrid Result: 3-4 — How the Model Called It, 14 October 2026
AS Roma vs Real Madrid finished 3-4 on 14 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid.
- Result: Real Madrid.
- The model gave this outcome a 40.3% chance before kick-off.
Final score
AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid in UEFA Champions League, 14 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave AS Roma vs Real Madrid these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | 36.0% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Real Madrid | 40.3% |
The model's most likely outcome — Real Madrid at 40.3% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full AS Roma vs Real Madrid analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Champions League table and fixtures
- AS Roma — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Real Madrid — Profile, squad and fixtures
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