AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II on 11 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is AZ Alkmaar at 63.8%.
- AZ Alkmaar: 63.8%.
- Draw: 21.6%.
- Willem II: 14.7%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- AZ Alkmaar are 1st in the table, Willem II 16th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
AZ Alkmaar host Willem II on 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC in Eredivisie. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
AZ Alkmaar sit 1st in the Eredivisie table on 15 points from 5 games, with Willem II 16th on 1 point — 15 places apart in an 18-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 63.8% |
| Draw | 21.6% |
| Willem II | 14.7% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
AZ Alkmaar arrive on a run of 5 straight wins, scoring 2.5 a game. Willem II have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Previous meetings
The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 2 February 2025: Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar, AZ Alkmaar taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Eredivisie table and fixtures
- AZ Alkmaar — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Willem II — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, AZ Alkmaar or Willem II?
The MatchSense model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 63.8%. That makes it the model's firm call, with the balance spread across the rest.
When do AZ Alkmaar and Willem II play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC in Eredivisie.
Which markets are analysed for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time AZ Alkmaar played Willem II?
They last met on 2 February 2025, Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar. Across both meetings, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, Willem II 1, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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