Willem II vs Cambuur Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Willem II vs Cambuur on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Draw at 36.1%.
- Draw: 36.1%.
- Willem II: 32.3%.
- Cambuur: 31.6%.
- Willem II are 18th in the table, Cambuur 14th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Willem II welcome Cambuur on 24 October 2026, 16:45 UTC in Eredivisie. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Eredivisie table, Willem II are 18th and Cambuur 14th, 7 points between them.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Draw | 36.1% |
| Willem II | 32.3% |
| Cambuur | 31.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Willem II come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 1.1 scored and 2.7 conceded. Cambuur have gone 5 matches without defeat, keeping 2 clean sheets.
When these two have met
The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 12 December 2025: Willem II 0-1 Cambuur, Cambuur taking it.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Willem II vs Cambuur analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Eredivisie table and fixtures
- Willem II — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Cambuur — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Willem II or Cambuur?
The MatchSense model gives Draw the highest probability at 36.1%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Willem II and Cambuur play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 16:45 UTC in Eredivisie.
What happened the last time Willem II played Cambuur?
They last met on 12 December 2025, Willem II 0-1 Cambuur. Across both meetings, Willem II have won 0, Cambuur 1, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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