Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Utrecht at 51.1%.
- Utrecht: 51.1%.
- Draw: 26.1%.
- PEC Zwolle: 22.7%.
- Utrecht are 11th in the table, PEC Zwolle 15th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Utrecht welcome PEC Zwolle on 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC in Eredivisie. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Utrecht sit 11th in the Eredivisie table on 11 points from 9 games, with PEC Zwolle 15th on 7 points.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Utrecht | 51.1% |
| Draw | 26.1% |
| PEC Zwolle | 22.7% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Utrecht have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.6 scored and 2.6 conceded. PEC Zwolle come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 2.4 conceded.
The head-to-head
The two have met just twice in our records. The most recent meeting came on 31 August 2025: PEC Zwolle 0-2 Utrecht, Utrecht taking it.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Eredivisie table and fixtures
- Utrecht — Profile, squad and fixtures
- PEC Zwolle — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Utrecht or PEC Zwolle?
The MatchSense model gives Utrecht the highest probability at 51.1%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Utrecht and PEC Zwolle play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC in Eredivisie.
What happened the last time Utrecht played PEC Zwolle?
They last met on 31 August 2025, PEC Zwolle 0-2 Utrecht. Across both meetings, Utrecht have won 1, PEC Zwolle 0, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Willem II vs Cambuur Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Result: 2-2 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026
- PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles Result: 4-1 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026