FOOTBALLUEFA Europa Leaguematch-recap28/08/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Benfica vs Aarhus Result: 3-1 — How the Model Called It, 20 August 2026
Benfica vs Aarhus finished 3-1 on 20 August 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Benfica 3-1 Aarhus.
- Result: Benfica.
- The model gave this outcome a 82.1% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Benfica 3-1 Aarhus in UEFA Europa League, 20 August 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Benfica vs Aarhus these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Benfica | 82.1% |
| Draw | 11.7% |
| Aarhus | 6.3% |
The model's most likely outcome — Benfica at 82.1% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Benfica vs Aarhus analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Benfica — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Aarhus — Profile, squad and fixtures
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