FOOTBALLUEFA Europa Leaguematch-recap16/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Benfica vs Celtic Result: 4-1 — How the Model Called It, 15 October 2026
Benfica vs Celtic finished 4-1 on 15 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Benfica 4-1 Celtic.
- Result: Benfica.
- The model gave this outcome a 76.9% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Benfica 4-1 Celtic in UEFA Europa League, 15 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Benfica vs Celtic these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Benfica | 76.9% |
| Draw | 12.9% |
| Celtic | 10.2% |
The model's most likely outcome — Benfica at 76.9% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Benfica vs Celtic analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Benfica — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Celtic — Profile, squad and fixtures
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha Result: 1-0 — How the Model Called It, 22 October 2026
- Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad Result: 0-6 — How the Model Called It, 22 October 2026
- Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica Result: 1-4 — How the Model Called It, 22 October 2026
- Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg Result: 2-2 — How the Model Called It, 22 October 2026