Burnley vs Charlton Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Burnley vs Charlton on 13 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Burnley at 54.1%.
- Burnley: 54.1%.
- Draw: 27.0%.
- Charlton: 18.9%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Burnley are 22nd in the table, Charlton 12th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Burnley host Charlton on 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in Championship. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Burnley come into this 22nd in the Championship table with 7 points; Charlton are 12th on 13 points — 10 places apart in a 24-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Burnley | 54.1% |
| Draw | 27.0% |
| Charlton | 18.9% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Across their last 10, Burnley show 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded. Across their last 10, Charlton show 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Burnley vs Charlton analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Burnley — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Charlton — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Burnley or Charlton?
The MatchSense model gives Burnley the highest probability at 54.1%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Burnley and Charlton play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in Championship.
Which markets are analysed for Burnley vs Charlton?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Burnley and Charlton in?
Burnley bring a record of 1-5-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded. Across their last 10, Charlton show 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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