Excelsior vs Groningen Result: 1-5 — How the Model Called It, 11 October 2026
Excelsior vs Groningen finished 1-5 on 11 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Excelsior 1-5 Groningen.
- Result: Groningen.
- The model gave this outcome a 32.6% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Excelsior 1-5 Groningen in Eredivisie, 11 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Excelsior vs Groningen these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Excelsior | 38.2% |
| Draw | 29.2% |
| Groningen | 32.6% |
The model made Excelsior the most likely outcome at 38.2%. What happened was Groningen, which it gave 32.6%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Excelsior vs Groningen analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Eredivisie table and fixtures
- Excelsior — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Groningen — Profile, squad and fixtures
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Willem II vs Cambuur Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Result: 2-2 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026
- Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026