Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma on 10 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is AS Roma at 44.9%.
- AS Roma: 44.9%.
- Fenerbahçe: 37.1%.
- Draw: 17.9%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Fenerbahçe come in on 6-3-1 from their last 10.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Fenerbahçe welcome AS Roma on 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC in UEFA Champions League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | 44.9% |
| Fenerbahçe | 37.1% |
| Draw | 17.9% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Fenerbahçe have gone 7 matches without defeat, scoring 2.1 a game. AS Roma have won their last 8, scoring 2.7 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Champions League table and fixtures
- Fenerbahçe — Profile, squad and fixtures
- AS Roma — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Fenerbahçe or AS Roma?
The MatchSense model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 44.9%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Fenerbahçe and AS Roma play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC in UEFA Champions League.
Which markets are analysed for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Fenerbahçe and AS Roma in?
Fenerbahçe stretch an unbeaten run of 7 into this one, scoring 2.1 a game. AS Roma have won their last 8, scoring 2.7 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
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