FOOTBALLSerie Amatch-recap10/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Genoa vs Fiorentina Result: 2-1 — How the Model Called It, 10 October 2026
Genoa vs Fiorentina finished 2-1 on 10 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina.
- Result: Genoa.
- The model gave this outcome a 29.3% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina in Serie A, 10 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Genoa vs Fiorentina these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Genoa | 29.3% |
| Draw | 24.8% |
| Fiorentina | 45.8% |
The model made Fiorentina the most likely outcome at 45.8%. What happened was Genoa, which it gave 29.3%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Genoa vs Fiorentina analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Genoa — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Fiorentina — Profile, squad and fixtures
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