Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities for 6 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 on 6 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is FSV Mainz 05 at 43.3%.
FSV Mainz 05: 43.3%.
Hamburger SV: 31.6%.
Draw: 25.1%.
1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
Hamburger SV are 18th in the table, FSV Mainz 05 5th.
Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Hamburger SV take on FSV Mainz 05 on 6 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

Hamburger SV sit 18th in the Bundesliga table on 0 points from 2 games, with FSV Mainz 05 5th on 4 points — 13 places apart in an 18-team competition.

The model's read

Outcome	Model probability
FSV Mainz 05	43.3%
Hamburger SV	31.6%
Draw	25.1%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

What each side brings into this

Hamburger SV bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded. Across their last 10, FSV Mainz 05 show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

Where the numbers come from

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Bundesliga table and fixtures
Hamburger SV — Profile, squad and fixtures
FSV Mainz 05 — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Hamburger SV or FSV Mainz 05?

The MatchSense model gives FSV Mainz 05 the highest probability at 43.3%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.

When do Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 6 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.

Which markets are analysed for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 in?

Hamburger SV have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded. FSV Mainz 05 bring a record of 5-2-3 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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