Heerenveen vs Telstar Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Heerenveen vs Telstar on 13 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is Heerenveen at 46.5%.
Heerenveen: 46.5%.
Telstar: 27.2%.
Draw: 26.4%.
Heerenveen are 12th in the table, Telstar 13th.
The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

Heerenveen host Telstar on 13 September 2026, 12:30 UTC in Eredivisie. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

Heerenveen come into this 12th in the Eredivisie table with 5 points; Telstar are 13th on 4 points, a single place apart.

The model's read

Outcome	Model probability
Heerenveen	46.5%
Telstar	27.2%
Draw	26.4%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

Recent form

Across their last 10, Heerenveen show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Telstar have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.6 scored and 1.9 conceded.

Previous meetings

The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 14 March 2026: Heerenveen 3-0 Telstar, Heerenveen taking it.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Heerenveen vs Telstar analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Eredivisie table and fixtures
Heerenveen — Profile, squad and fixtures
Telstar — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Heerenveen or Telstar?

The MatchSense model gives Heerenveen the highest probability at 46.5%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.

When do Heerenveen and Telstar play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 12:30 UTC in Eredivisie.

What happened the last time Heerenveen played Telstar?

They last met on 14 March 2026, Heerenveen 3-0 Telstar. Across both meetings, Heerenveen have won 2, Telstar 0, with 0 drawn.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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