Hull City vs Everton Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Hull City vs Everton on 11 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Everton at 39.3%.
- Everton: 39.3%.
- Draw: 30.8%.
- Hull City: 29.9%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Hull City are 8th in the table, Everton 7th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Hull City welcome Everton on 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Premier League. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Premier League table, Hull City are 8th and Everton 7th, a point between them, a single place apart.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Everton | 39.3% |
| Draw | 30.8% |
| Hull City | 29.9% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Across their last 10, Hull City show 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Everton are unbeaten in 5, keeping 3 clean sheets.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Hull City vs Everton analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Hull City — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Everton — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Hull City or Everton?
The MatchSense model gives Everton the highest probability at 39.3%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Hull City and Everton play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC in Premier League.
Which markets are analysed for Hull City vs Everton?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Hull City and Everton in?
Hull City have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Everton stretch an unbeaten run of 5 into this one, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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